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COMMENT | Over the duration of the campaign period, as I travelled around the peninsula, I have been hearing much of a phenomenon that has featured in most elections of the past, that of the practice of patronage and the use of money to muster electoral support.

However, one different and intriguing allegation persistently voiced is that Umno is financing PAS, an issue strongly denied by members of both parties. Indeed, when this allegation was made against PAS by a foreigner, based in England, a libel suit was filed in that country. The case is pending, though the judge did decide that PAS had some justification to argue that this was a libellous claim.

This claim is related to another allegation made in the east coast states, that there exists a “national consensus”, a reference to a deal apparently struck between the leaders of Umno and PAS. In this agreement, both parties will contest each other, but the campaign will be run in a manner where Umno and PAS candidates will focus not on attacking each other but the Pakatan Harapan coalition, led by former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

All Umno and PAS members we have met have denied that there is a national consensus, while most Harapan members draw reference to it. What all politicians agree is that if the Umno and PAS grassroots members find evidence of such a consensus, this would cause a rupture between them and their leaders.

A related matter is the practice of patronage to retain party unity. In Umno, fractured as it is with the formation of a formidable splinter party, Bersatu, led by Mahathir – and increasingly supported by a growing breed of prominent retired Umno leaders – it is imperative that the grassroots remain loyal to the party.

The topic of patronage is consistently associated the issue of Umno warlords, usually division heads, who are responsible for ensuring that the grassroots remain loyal to the party. There is much talk of money being sent to the divisions to mobilise grassroots support, as well as to fund them to work the ground to muster electoral support. These warlords, after all, reputedly have a strong following among the grassroots whose support is vital if Umno is to win parliamentary and state seats in an extremely tough general election.

What do we make of discussions of an Umno-PAS agreement, of warlords and of factionalism and patronage in this election campaign?

These issues are related to the epochal fracture in Umno when a breakaway party was formed which later became a key player in the opposition coalition. In a situation where a faction has emerged as a major political threat, there is a need for Umno to co-opt an important opposition party into the BN.

Talk of a national consensus has emerged for this reason, though it remains unclear how PAS will benefit from this agreement. What Umno and PAS politicians have pointed out is that we can expect to see a coalition between them in state governments, in the event this is necessary. There is much speculation of hung state governments in Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan, possibly even in Selangor and Negri Sembilan.

Indeed, there is also talk of a BN-PAS coalition at the federal level, if there is a hung parliament.

Difficult battle for Umno

While the issue of Umno factionalism is not new – indeed, all parties have factions – the practice of patronage can become more pronounced before a general election when the BN can lose power. After all, Umno leaders are aware that if they continue to dispense patronage to the grassroots, this will make it difficult for members to defect, even sabotage their own candidates for fear of losing access to government concessions if their party loses power.

It is imperative for Umno leaders to win this election as this will be clear validation of their party’s invincibility, convincing grassroots members of the need to stand by them. Such Umno factional splits, resulting in new parties led by formidable leaders, have occurred before, in 1990 and 1999.

But this is the first time that a breakaway faction comprises a former prime minister, two deputy prime ministers and a menteri besar. If Umno fares well in this election, even just enough to retain control of federal government, this will also confer on the party the legitimacy it seeks, having had to deal with serious allegations of corruption and abuse of power.

In this situation, the practice of patronage, including channelling funds to warlords to keep the divisions and branches in check, is important. It is also essential that parliamentary and state candidates have ample funds to mount an effective campaign. This is not the first time we are hearing of this practice.

After it was disclosed in 2015 that a substantial donation had been channelled to the Umno president, he said that he had distributed this money to party candidates to run their campaigns effectively in the 2013 general election. One prominent longstanding Umno member of parliament later disclosed that he had received RM1 million in 2013 to fund his election machinery. Talks abound of similar large sums of money being channelled to Umno division leaders for this election, though we saw no evidence of this.

Discourses about a national consensus, patronage and political financing are ultimately based on one core issue: Umno is in an extremely difficult battle to retain power. Although much of what we are seeing in this election has occurred in previous general elections, there is one core difference: the key party in GE14 is PAS.

Given the uncertainty of the election outcome because of the multitude of multi-cornered contests, on the night of May 9, PAS hopes to be in a situation to decide which coalition will form the government at the federal level and in at least three states.


TERENCE GOMEZ is Professor of Political Economy at the Faculty of Economics & Administration, University of Malaya.

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