In 1999, the late PAS president Fadzil Noor won the Pendang parliamentary and Anak Bukit state seats by large margins of 2,939 and 1,840 respectively.

Last night Barisan Nasional's Othman Abdul won back the Pendang, polling 22,825 votes with a 283 majority whilst his party fellow member Zakaria Said polled 7,790 votes, losing to PAS' Amiruddin Hamzah in Anak Bukit by 508 votes.

Although BN is still by Anak Bukit's loss denied the two-third majority in the Kedah state assembly, the by-elections results represent a significant improvement of BN's showing in momentum with the trend of consecutive by-election successes in Indera Kayangan (Perlis) and Ketari (Pahang) since Lunas (Kedah).

As veteran politician DAP's Lim Kit Siang is prone to say, the main intervening event between Keadilan's victory in Lunas and BN's victories in Indera Kayangan and Ketari was the Sept 11 terrorists attacks.

The main difference between Indera Kayangan/Ketari and Pendang/Anak Bukit is that the latter are PAS's strongholds with heavier Malay electorate majority of over 80 percent, and the main intervening event was PAS' implementation of hudud and qisas in Terengganu.

There appears to be this unmistakable swing of Malay votes back to BN which together with the increasing support of non-Malays as well represent a tide of sea change in the political landscape moving back to the BN.

This is evident in the case of Pendang/Anak Bukit judging from the fact that:

they were the late PAS president's seats whose untimely demise was expected to garner more sympathy votes;

the recent Federal Court's decision to dismiss ex-deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim's appeal ought to revive the Malay outrage at his treatment if that has abated with the effluxion of time;

PAS has exploited emotions on issues like reinstatement of English for science and mathematics; and

in terms of foul play, there was no significant allegation of that on the ruling party's part [examples, busloads of voters from outside (in Lunas by-elections) or phantom dead voters on electoral list] whereas this time around, PAS' supporters had been alleged to have underhandedly portrayed Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his deputy as Christian and pork seller respectively in posters.

Yet in spite of all, BN reduced drastically PAS' 1999 majority in Anak Bukit and recovered the Pendang parliamentary seat albeit by slim majority.

What does this suggest?

Ultimately this recovery of support by BN, judging by results of recent three by-elections, may not be so much attributable to the 'pull' factor of BN than the 'push' factor of PAS' policies that are costing the opposition front's support and votes.

Umno's main opponent and ironically BN's best assistant to help win the next general election with even greater majority is actually Terengganu Menteri Besar Abdul Hadi Awang whose extremist drive to implement hudud/qisas in Terengganu has frightened a lot of people.

As a measuring cast, BN's 'Malaysia Boleh!

' aspiration to participate in joint space programmes with Russians to place Malaysian astronaut in Mars by 2020 may border on surreal make-believe but it is not as harmful, and very much less terrifying than PAS' Islamic state and hudud policies.

It was earlier reported that fence sitters held sway over Pendang and Anak Bukit by-elections and that this non partisan electorate made up about 20 percent of the total voters, and were mainly Malay Malaysians ( The Star , July 18).

Assuming that they were substantially responsible for BN's relatively good showing in Pendang and Anak Bukit, what then if one extrapolates this to the coming general election?

Whilst BN offers no 'pull' factor to draw this non-partisan crowd out to register and vote for it, the 'push' factor of PAS may just achieve that.

Keadilan and PRM should heed the importunate hints by DAP leaders to jettison PAS in order to team up with DAP to form a viable alternative front, more acceptable to Middle (Mainstream) Malaysia against both BN and PAS.

As a snap general election may be called, their prevarication will cost Malaysians a viable opposition front, and cost the BA further loss of positions and seats.