COMMENT | Two weeks have passed since the Johor state election, one that will be remembered for its campaign intensity and vote swings. It remains to be seen whether the Johor polls will mark a fundamental shift in Malaysian voting behaviour.

A detailed statistical analysis of the polling and saluran results, yielding estimates of voting behaviour, suggests that the Johor polls were a turning point for all the major coalitions compared to the 2022 general election. The findings also show that the patterns correspond to trends in earlier state polls.

The analysis uses three lenses - ethnic voting (because this is the dominant mobilisation and accounts for the most variation), age cohort voting (because of the critical role of youth as swing voters and growing share of the electorate), and class voting patterns (reflection of how policies are being perceived by different income groups).

The results show three patterns – a “blue wave”, “red alert”, and “green recession”. Attention has been on the BN gains, Pakatan Harapan losses and Perikatan Nasional wipeout.

What a closer historical analysis of trends reveals is...